Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.354883 0.413425 0.476993 0.550942 0.634388 0.725417 0.832006
2025-05-04 0.276007 0.352749 0.442525 0.554533 0.689699 0.846677 1.041835
2025-05-11 0.216722 0.303007 0.411392 0.555733 0.740890 0.968246 1.266060
2025-05-18 0.160302 0.246336 0.362677 0.528183 0.753707 1.045983 1.448329
2025-05-25 0.115906 0.196779 0.314835 0.494384 0.754111 1.108788 1.620689
2025-06-01 0.088714 0.166256 0.288208 0.485852 0.788099 1.221021 1.872952
2025-06-08 0.067185 0.139535 0.262329 0.474366 0.816719 1.330061 2.134734
2025-06-15 0.054679 0.125175 0.253614 0.488566 0.886740 1.508236 2.516826
2025-06-22 0.039865 0.102198 0.225330 0.465525 0.894695 1.594099 2.771638
2025-06-29 0.029802 0.085610 0.204991 0.452714 0.917950 1.707048 3.081048
2025-07-06 0.021948 0.071082 0.185178 0.437131 0.934167 1.810591 3.386709
2025-07-13 0.017772 0.064065 0.179565 0.448554 1.001570 2.008570 3.868009
2025-07-20 0.013474 0.055085 0.167831 0.446584 1.046428 2.177653 4.326879
2025-07-27 0.010551 0.048793 0.160908 0.454032 1.111782 2.392225 4.887931
2025-08-03 0.008156 0.042917 0.153380 0.458788 1.172931 2.606690 5.470795
2025-08-10 0.005645 0.034828 0.136957 0.438391 1.177396 2.713820 5.868860
2025-08-17 0.003728 0.027496 0.119853 0.411935 1.163995 2.784368 6.205873
2025-08-24 0.002690 0.023340 0.111327 0.406593 1.198923 2.957492 6.757063
2025-08-31 0.001893 0.019579 0.102548 0.398332 1.225639 3.116639 7.295542
2025-09-07 0.001498 0.017916 0.101088 0.411967 1.309711 3.408246 8.125610
2025-09-14 0.000972 0.014402 0.090278 0.393150 1.306801 3.508285 8.571733
2025-09-21 0.000653 0.011952 0.082734 0.382959 1.325255 3.658409 9.135219
2025-09-28 0.000423 0.009774 0.075113 0.370178 1.334323 3.787719 9.664941